Markets
The Pandemic Economy: What are Shoppers Buying Online During COVID-19?
The Fastest Growing and Declining E-Commerce Categories
The COVID-19 pandemic is having a significant impact on every aspect of life, including how people shop for their necessities, and their not-so-necessities.
With online retail sales estimated to reach an eye-watering $6.5 trillion by 2023, the ecommerce sector was already booming. But since the outbreak, online shopping has been catapulted into complete overdrive. Even the largest retailers on the planet are struggling to keep up with the unprecedented consumer demand—but what exactly are people buying?
To answer this question, retail intelligence firm Stackline analyzed ecommerce sales across the U.S. and compiled a list of the fastest growing and declining ecommerce categories (March 2020 vs. March 2019) with surprising results.
The Frenzy of Buyer Behavior
As people come to terms with their new living situations, their buying behavior has adapted to suit their needs. While panic buying may have slowed in some countries, consumers continue to stock up on supplies, or “pandemic pantry products”.
Many consumers are also using their newfound time to focus on their health, with 85% of consumers taking up some kind of exercise while in social isolation, and 40% of them saying they intend to keep it up when restrictions are lifted.
These changing behaviors have resulted in a number of product categories experiencing a surge in demand — and although a lot of them are practical, others are wonderfully weird.
The Fastest Growing Categories
While the below list features several shelf-stable items, it seems as though consumers are taking matters into their own hands, with bread making machines sitting in second place and retailers selling out of their top models.
It’s clear from the list that consumers are considering positive changes to their lifestyle while in isolation, as fitness, smoking cessation, and respiratory categories are all experiencing growth.
Explore the 100 fastest growing product categories below:
Rank | Category | % Change in March (2020 vs. 2019) |
---|---|---|
#1 | Disposable Gloves | 670% |
#2 | Bread Machines | 652% |
#3 | Cough & Cold | 535% |
#4 | Soups | 397% |
#5 | Dried Grains & Rice | 386% |
#6 | Packaged Foods | 377% |
#7 | Fruit Cups | 326% |
#8 | Weight Training | 307% |
#9 | Milk & Cream | 279% |
#10 | Dishwashing Supplies | 275% |
#11 | Paper Towels | 264% |
#12 | Hand Soap & Sanitizer | 262% |
#13 | Pasta | 249% |
#14 | Vegetables | 238% |
#15 | Flour | 238% |
#16 | Facial Tissues | 235% |
#17 | Allergy Medicine | 232% |
#18 | Women’s Health | 215% |
#19 | Cereals | 214% |
#20 | Power Generators | 210% |
#21 | Laundry Supplies | 200% |
#22 | Household Cleaners | 195% |
#23 | Soap & Body Wash | 194% |
#24 | Toilet Paper | 190% |
#25 | Jerky & Dried Meats | 187% |
#26 | Chips & Pretzels | 186% |
#27 | Crackers | 184% |
#28 | Health Monitors | 182% |
#29 | Popcorn | 179% |
#30 | Computer Monitors | 172% |
#31 | Fitness Equipment | 170% |
#32 | Single Vitamins | 166% |
#33 | Nut & Seed Butters | 163% |
#34 | Cat Food | 162% |
#35 | Fruit Snacks | 162% |
#36 | Baby Care Products | 162% |
#37 | Refrigerators | 160% |
#38 | Baking Mixes | 160% |
#39 | Toilet Accessories | 160% |
#40 | Dog Food | 159% |
#41 | Diapers | 154% |
#42 | Yoga Equipment | 154% |
#43 | Bottled Beverages | 153% |
#44 | Baby Meals | 153% |
#45 | Cookies | 147% |
#46 | Digestion & Nausea | 144% |
#47 | Snack Foods | 141% |
#48 | Herbal Supplements | 136% |
#49 | Cooking Oils | 135% |
#50 | Water | 130% |
#51 | Incontinence & Tummy | 129% |
#52 | Mutivitamin | 126% |
#53 | Cat Litter | 125% |
#54 | Training Pads and Trays | 125% |
#55 | Juices | 125% |
#56 | Smoking Cessation | 122% |
#57 | Dried Fruit & Raisins | 120% |
#58 | Salt & Pepper Seasoning | 118% |
#59 | Craft Kits & Projects | 117% |
#60 | Batteries | 116% |
#61 | Trash Bags | 116% |
#62 | Nuts & Seeds | 116% |
#63 | Hair Coloring | 115% |
#64 | Sauce & Gravy | 115% |
#65 | Deli Foods | 114% |
#66 | Syrups | 114% |
#67 | Breads & Bakery | 114% |
#68 | Minerals | 113% |
#69 | Condiments | 111% |
#70 | First Aid | 108% |
#71 | Nail Care | 108% |
#72 | Humidifiers | 105% |
#73 | Art Paint | 104% |
#74 | Office Chairs | 104% |
#75 | Deodorant | 103% |
#76 | Jams, Jellies & Spreads | 102% |
#77 | Coffee | 101% |
#78 | Spices & Seasoning | 100% |
#79 | Skin Care | 99% |
#80 | Pain Relievers | 99% |
#81 | Cooking Vinegars | 98% |
#82 | Air Purifiers | 97% |
#83 | Granola & Nutrition Bars | 97% |
#84 | Pudding & Gelatin | 97% |
#85 | Toy Clay & Dough | 95% |
#86 | Single Spices | 95% |
#87 | Bird Food & Treats | 91% |
#88 | Lab & Science Products | 90% |
#89 | Eczema & Psoriasis | 90% |
#90 | Ping Pong | 89% |
#91 | Chocolate | 86% |
#92 | Baking Ingredients | 84% |
#93 | Energy Supplements | 84% |
#94 | Respiratory | 82% |
#95 | Office Desks | 82% |
#96 | Potty Training Supplies | 82% |
#97 | Herbs, Spices & Seasonings | 82% |
#98 | Keyboard & Mice | 80% |
#99 | Body Lotion | 79% |
#100 | Safes | 69% |
Interestingly, toilet paper has seen more growth than baby care products, and cured meats have seen more growth than water. But while some categories are experiencing a drastic increase in demand, others are slumping in the pandemic economy.
The Fastest Declining Categories
An unprecedented wave of event and vacation cancellations is having a huge impact on the products people consume. For instance, luggage and suitcases, cameras, and men’s swimwear have all seen a dip in sales.
See the full list of 100 fastest declining categories below:
Rank | Category | % Change in March (2020 vs. 2019) |
---|---|---|
#1 | Luggage & Suitcases | -77% |
#2 | Briefcases | -77% |
#3 | Cameras | -64% |
#4 | Men’s Swimwear | -64% |
#5 | Bridal Clothing | -63% |
#6 | Men's Formal Wear | -62% |
#7 | Women’s Swimwear | -59% |
#8 | Rash Guards | -59% |
#9 | Boy’s Athletic Shoes | -59% |
#10 | Gym Bags | -57% |
#11 | Backpacks | -56% |
#12 | Snorkelling Equipment | -56% |
#13 | Girl’s Swimwear | -55% |
#14 | Baseball Equipment | -55% |
#15 | Event & Party Supplies | -55% |
#16 | Motorcycle Protective Gear | -55% |
#17 | Camera Bags & Cases | -54% |
#18 | Women’s Suits & Dresses | -53% |
#19 | Women’s Boots | -51% |
#20 | Cargo Racks | -51% |
#21 | Women’s Sandals | -50% |
#22 | Drones | -50% |
#23 | Boy's Active Clothing | -50% |
#24 | Lunch Boxes | -50% |
#25 | Store Fixtures & Displays | -50% |
#26 | Automotive Mats | -50% |
#27 | Men’s Outerwear | -49% |
#28 | Watches & Accessories | -49% |
#29 | Cargo Bed Covers | -48% |
#30 | Track & Field Equipment | -48% |
#31 | Ceiling Lighting | -47% |
#32 | Camera Lenses | -47% |
#33 | Girl’s Coats and Jackets | -47% |
#34 | Women’s Hats & Caps | -47% |
#35 | Women's Outerwear | -47% |
#36 | Video Cameras | -46% |
#37 | Wheels & Tires | -46% |
#38 | Motorcycle Parts | -45% |
#39 | Women’s Wallets | -45% |
#40 | Shocks & Struts | -44% |
#41 | Transmission & Parts | -44% |
#42 | Girl’s Athletic Shoes | -44% |
#43 | Women’s Shoes | -44% |
#44 | Telescopes | -44% |
#45 | Sunglasses & Eyeglasses | -43% |
#46 | Men’s Tops | -41% |
#47 | Video Projectors | -40% |
#48 | Men’s Athletic Shoes | -40% |
#49 | Marine Electronics | -40% |
#50 | Hand Tools | -40% |
#51 | Wine Racks | -40% |
#52 | Men's Shoes | -40% |
#53 | Clocks | -39% |
#54 | Baby Girl’s Shoes | -39% |
#55 | Bracelets | -39% |
#56 | Men’s Boots | -39% |
#57 | Tapestries | -39% |
#58 | Camping Equipment | -39% |
#59 | Men’s Bottoms | -38% |
#60 | Cell Phones | -38% |
#61 | Tool Storage & Organizers | -38% |
#62 | Necklaces | -38% |
#63 | Swimming Equipment | -37% |
#64 | Men’s Hats & Caps | -37% |
#65 | Girl’s Shoes | -37% |
#66 | Industrial Tools | -36% |
#67 | Juicers | -36% |
#68 | Desktops | -35% |
#69 | Classroom Furniture | -35% |
#70 | Bar & Wine Tools | -35% |
#71 | Glassware & Drinkware | -35% |
#72 | Musical Instruments | -34% |
#73 | Power Winches | -34% |
#74 | Home Bar Furniture | -34% |
#75 | Office Storage Supplies | -34% |
#76 | Girl's Active Clothing | -34% |
#77 | Women’s Tops | -34% |
#78 | Braces, Splints & Supports | -34% |
#79 | Car Anti-theft | -34% |
#80 | Rings | -34% |
#81 | Blankets & Quilts | -33% |
#82 | Women's Athletic Shoes | -33% |
#83 | Kitchen Sinks | -33% |
#84 | Golf Clubs | -33% |
#85 | Equestrian Equipment | -33% |
#86 | GPS & Navigation | -32% |
#87 | Recording Supplies | -32% |
#88 | Home Audio | -32% |
#89 | Boy's Accessories | -32% |
#90 | Earrings | -32% |
#91 | Dining Sets | -31% |
#92 | Calculators | -31% |
#93 | Boy's Shoes | -31% |
#94 | Volleyball Equipment | -31% |
#95 | Strollers | -31% |
#96 | Coolers | -30% |
#97 | Sanders & Grinders | -30% |
#98 | Men's Activewear | -29% |
#99 | Living Room Furniture | -29% |
#100 | Climbing & Hiking Bags | -28% |
Regardless of which list a product falls under, it is clear that the pandemic has impacted retailers of every kind in both positive and negative ways.
The New Normal?
Officially the world’s largest retailer, Amazon has announced it can no longer keep up with consumer demand. As a result, it will be delaying the delivery of non-essential items, or in some cases not taking orders for non-essentials at all.
This presents a double-edged sword, as the new dynamic that is bringing some retailers unprecedented demand could also bring about an untimely end for others.
Meanwhile, the question remains: will this drastic change in consumer behavior stabilize once we flatten the curve, or is this our new normal?
Markets
Visualizing Global Inflation Forecasts (2024-2026)
Here are IMF forecasts for global inflation rates up to 2026, highlighting a slow descent of price pressures amid resilient global growth.
Visualizing Global Inflation Forecasts (2024-2026)
Global inflation rates are gradually descending, but progress has been slow.
Today, the big question is if inflation will decline far enough to trigger easing monetary policy. So far, the Federal Reserve has held rates for nine months amid stronger than expected core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices.
Yet looking further ahead, inflation forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggest that inflation will decline as price pressures ease, but the path of disinflation is not without its unknown risks.
This graphic shows global inflation forecasts, based on data from the April 2024 IMF World Economic Outlook.
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The IMF’s Inflation Outlook
Below, we show the IMF’s latest projections for global inflation rates through to 2026:
Year | Global Inflation Rate (%) | Advanced Economies Inflation Rate (%) | Emerging Market and Developing Economies Inflation Rate (%) |
---|---|---|---|
2019 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 5.1 |
2020 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 5.2 |
2021 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 5.9 |
2022 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 9.8 |
2023 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 8.3 |
2024 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 8.3 |
2025 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 6.2 |
2026 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 4.9 |
After hitting a peak of 8.7% in 2022, global inflation is projected to fall to 5.9% in 2024, reflecting promising inflation trends amid resilient global growth.
While inflation has largely declined due to falling energy and goods prices, persistently high services inflation poses challenges to mitigating price pressures. In addition, the IMF highlights the potential risk of an escalating conflict in the Middle East, which could lead to energy price shocks and higher shipping costs.
These developments could negatively affect inflation scenarios and prompt central banks to adopt tighter monetary policies. Overall, by 2026, global inflation is anticipated to decline to 3.7%—still notably above the 2% target set by several major economies.
Adding to this, we can see divergences in the path of inflation between advanced and emerging economies. While affluent nations are forecast to see inflation edge closer to the 2% target by 2026, emerging economies are projected to have inflation rates reach 4.9%—falling closer to their pre-pandemic averages.
Get the Full Analysis of the IMF’s Outlook on VC+
This visual is part of an exclusive special dispatch for VC+ members which breaks down the key takeaways from the IMF’s 2024 World Economic Outlook.
For the full set of charts and analysis, sign up for VC+.
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